"Simulating Medicine", Jacob Stegenga of University of Cambridge "Simulating Medicine" Tuesday, September 27, 12:00 - 1:00 p.m. Roy Blunt NextGen Precision Health Building Atkins Family Seminar Room (Virtual option available) Register to join us now! This talk presents a developing programme in meta-research, or research about research, in which we simulate data to test hypotheses about medical research and clinical practice. Simulated data has a number of advantages over real data: access to real data is often impossible, especially in clinical science; we do not have unfiltered access to the truth of hypotheses with real data, while simulations allow us to stipulate the truth; and real data does not permit counterfactual analyses, while simulations afford the exploration of many counterfactual scenarios. In one set of simulations we investigate features of trials, asking questions like: to what extent does publication bias exaggerate estimates of effectiveness? In another, particularly important for precision health, we model the patient-physician encounter and ask: how reliable are first-person inferences about drug effectiveness? This event is offered by NextGen Precision Health in partnership with the Arts and Science and Society Program and the Department of Philosophy through the Benjamin Fund for Philosophy of Science.